Pricing & profit tools · 04

Profit Scenario Simulator

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Free tool - no sign-up - runs in your browser

Compare business decisions side by side: raise prices, run a discount, cut a cost, add a hire or change your ad budget. See which one produces more modeled profit under your own assumptions, and exactly how many sales each one needs.

Profit scenario simulator

Filled with example values. Replace them with your own.

Currency and period

A product, an hour, a job, a seat... every result uses this word.

Baseline: your business today

Everything one more sale costs you: product cost, materials, direct labour.

Fees, VAT and discounts

Card processing or marketplace commission, as a % of the price after discount.

Tax collected for the government is not your revenue, so it is removed before any margin is calculated.

Planned average discount off the selling price.

Modeled operating profit / month

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Contribution per unit
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Break-even sales
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Most you can spend to win one sale
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Margin of safety
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From revenue to profit

Scenarios

Each scenario starts from the baseline and changes only what you enter. Volume changes are your own assumptions - the simulator does not guess how customers react.

    Modeled profit by scenario

    Scenario Operating profit Operating profit vs baseline Break-even Sales to match baseline

      Highest modeled profit under your assumptions: –

      Price and volume sensitivity

      Modeled operating profit for every combination of price change (columns) and change in units sold (rows). Cells marked with an up arrow beat the baseline; cells marked with a down arrow fall short.

      ▲ at or above baseline ▼ below baseline

      Revenue, costs and profit by sales volume

      Show the chart as a table
      Save in this browser

      Saved in this browser

        How to use it

        1. Enter your baseline - today's price, costs, units sold, fixed costs and marketing for one period.
        2. Edit the three starter scenarios or add your own, up to four. Each one changes only the fields you fill in: price, units sold, variable costs, fixed costs or marketing.
        3. Compare modeled profit in the table and look at the sales each scenario needs to match today's profit. That threshold is often more useful than the profit figure itself.
        4. Use the sensitivity grid to see how profit moves when price and volume change together.

        The formulas

        Every scenario is the baseline with your changes applied, run through the same model.

        • Scenario price = baseline price x (1 + price change)
        • Scenario units = baseline units x (1 + change in units) + extra sales you expect from marketing
        • Modeled operating profit = contribution per unit x units - fixed costs - marketing
        • Sales to match baseline profit = (baseline profit + scenario fixed costs + scenario marketing) / scenario contribution per unit, rounded up
        • Most you can spend to win one sale = contribution per unit, before marketing

        The simulator never infers how customers respond. A price increase does not lose sales and an ad budget does not win any unless you enter that assumption.

        Worked example

        Baseline: price $100, variable cost $60, 1,000 units a month, fixed costs $20,000. Modeled operating profit is ($100 - $60) x 1,000 - $20,000 = $20,000 a month.

        Worked example
        Scenario Price Units / month Profit / month
        Baseline $100 1,000 $20,000
        Raise price; volume unchanged $110 1,000 $30,000
        Raise price; 10% fewer units $110 900 $25,000
        Raise price; 20% fewer units $110 800 $20,000
        Discount price; volume unchanged $90 1,000 $10,000
        Discount price; 1,334 units $90 1,334 $20,020

        The 10% price rise can lose up to 20% of its sales before profit drops below the baseline. The 10% discount needs about 33.3% more sales - 1,334 units - just to stand still. These are thresholds, not forecasts.

        Questions

        Does the simulator predict how my customers will react?

        No. It shows what happens under the volumes you enter, and the volume each change needs to break even with today. Whether customers will deliver that volume is the judgement only you can make - test it with real prices where you can.

        Why does a discount need so many extra sales?

        A discount comes straight out of contribution, not out of price. Cutting a $100 price by 10% takes $10 from a $40 contribution - a quarter of what each sale earns - so you need a third more sales to earn the same.

        How do I model a new hire?

        Put the full cost of the role for the period in extra fixed costs. The scenario shows the extra sales needed to pay for it. If the hire also brings sales, add them as a change in units sold.

        How do I model an ad campaign?

        Enter the extra spend and the extra sales you expect from it. The results show whether those sales pay for the spend; the most you can pay to win one sale is your contribution per unit.

        Assumptions and limits

        • Prices, unit costs and fixed costs are constant within each scenario.
        • Volume responses are your assumptions, labelled as such.
        • One period, one product or an average unit. No cash timing, tax or capacity limits.

        Sources and method

        Reviewed by The Business Radar editorial team Last reviewed October 2026

        These tools model your own inputs with standard formulas. They are for planning and education, not financial, tax or legal advice.

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